Image Credit: Chronicle of Higher Education

We’ve heard a lot lately about how the sheen has worn off the traditional college degree. Multiple surveys now show that fewer than half of Americans believe that higher education is net positive for our country, let alone for each individual graduate. What’s going on? Well, the three most powerful forces are political, economic, and structural.

Politics

The growing polarization, demonization and tribalism in our society is equally reflected in views on higher education as it is in other milieus.

The lion’s share of the decline in favorability is among those who describe themselves as Republicans. Astonishingly, less than 15 years ago, nearly 60% of Republicans had a favorable view of higher education. Now that figure is 33%. That precipitous decline is less about actual change in the role or function of colleges and universities and more about the fact that republican politics have associated higher education with elitist, liberal, democratic forces, which are “bad,” so therefore higher education is bad. While there are legitimate things to criticize about higher ed from across the political spectrum, the free-fall in republican opinions of higher education cannot be explained by objective changes in higher ed alone.

Economics

A more tangible criticism of higher education, and larger contributor to market-driven declines in enrollment, is economic. Over the last 40 years, the cost of going to college has increased 180% after accounting for inflation. At the same time, state level funding for public colleges, where most students go to school, has declined. As a result, the burden of paying for college largely shifted to students and families, who until recently, willingly filled the gap with borrowed money. For students without the ability to pay who have attended private colleges, the debt incurred is often high five figures and, about 20% of the time, six figures! The increase in tuition and debt has happened at the same time that opportunities for “college level employment” have stagnated and even declined. National unemployment is technically low, but full-time, professional level employment for recent college graduates is poor.

According to a Strada education report released in early 2024, “While typical college graduates fare substantially better in the labor market than workers with only a high school education, half are underemployed. Even 10 years after graduation, the majority of those who were initially underemployed still have not secured a college-level job.” So, young college graduates are not just struggling with their first job out of college, but underemployment for the youngest Millenials and older Gen Zers is incredibly sticky, lasting for a decade or more.

So, many (52%) of graduates end up with work that often does not even support basic living costs, let alone the ability to pay back substantial student debt. And, of the half of graduates who are underemployed, 88% are severely underemployed, which as defined by Strada, means work for which they only need a high school diploma, and often is not even full time. It is also true that for at least 16 majors, early career income averages $40,000 or less per year even for graduates who are employed full time in their field. The financial coffin corner would be something like a degree in early childhood education or social work from an expensive private college.

Of course, there are still four-year college degree options that are very favorable for graduates—particularly those who do not have to go into substantial debt. However, the bifurcation between degrees that really pay off with full time employment right out of school vs. those that are often a net-negative is growing.

Structure

For most students, most four-year degree options in most institutions are not only expensive with often marginal economic reward, but running the gauntlet of unfriendly, inflexible, poor service systems for a minimum of four years, is just not viable. Compared to several decades ago, fewer students live lives that allow for the typical time, schedule, and financial commitments required for four-year degrees. As a result, many folks are choosing not to attend college, even if they want to, because the typical college structure is simply not workable, and for many, the economic calculus is not viable either.

Interestingly, from a cost and employment perspective, the most dependable return on investment in post-secondary education is currently related to technical training for jobs that are high-skill, but do not require bachelor’s degrees—or in some cases, even any college. Examples range from allied health to welding and many other “vocational” fields, but the bottom line is that a 12-month program in HVAC or a 24-month program in nursing leads to full employment and a much more likely ticket into the middle class than many four-year degrees. Even shorter programs in high demand fields such as electrical lineman or cyber-security can provide ROI that crushes some four-year degrees.

In short, there are some very good reasons that a growing number of Americans are souring on higher education, particularly the traditional four-year degree. Families with means will continue to send their children to college, but for the vast majority of Americans who cannot pay the grindingly high cost of traditional higher education today out of pocket, their view of higher education will likely remain skeptical, if not outright negative, and their buying decisions will reflect that. Parts of post-secondary education will continue to grow, while traditional higher education will continue to shrink.